Markets react to Trump's tariff promise

FILE PHOTO: A trader wears a hat in support of Republican Donald Trump, after he won the U.S. presidential election, at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that on his first day in office he will impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.

The announcement sparked a dollar rally. It rose 1% against the Canadian dollar and 2% against the Mexican peso, while U.S. stock futures and share markets in Asia fell. [FRX/][MKTS/GLOB]

Here are reactions from market participants:

ROB CARNELL, REGIONAL HEAD OF RESEARCH, ING, SINGAPORE

"It reminds me a lot of four years ago, when you'd wake up every morning and markets would be whipped around by whatever the latest comment is. I'm tempted to take it with a bit of a pinch of salt. He's not the president yet.

"This is how he gets stuff done, isn't it? He throws stuff around, mentions various numbers, markets react and maybe it happens maybe it doesn't."

ALEX LOO, FX AND MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE

"While the USMCA agreement is technically only up for renegotiation in 2026, Trump is likely trying to kickstart the renewal process early with Canada and Mexico through today's tariff announcements. MXN and CAD had a kneejerk reaction lower but thin liquidity outside North America time zone may have contributed to the outsized moves seen in Asia this morning."

SEAN CALLOW, SENIOR FX ANALYST, ITC MARKETS, SYDNEY

"It was just last month that Trump said that 'the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff' so there really should not have been a surprise in Trump’s intention, just in the timing of the comments.

"The fall in trade-sensitive currencies makes sense and should persist near term given the quiet calendar, but Fed policy should return to the fore once we get closer to the December FOMC meeting."

KHOON GOH, HEAD OF ASIA RESEARCH, ANZ, SINGAPORE

"It looks like he's not going to waste much time... so the question now is - on day 1 is he actually going to follow through with it and will the tariffs hit on day 1?

"The other interesting thing is he's laid out his reasons for the tariffs (relating to the movement of people and drugs) so it looks like these tariffs are conditional on those. Whilst this is the opening salvo, maybe this is just the beginning of the deals he's well known for."

TONY SYCAMORE, MARKET ANALYST, IG MARKETS, SYDNEY

"I'm just trying to reconcile how it works with the appointment of Bessent. People have been expecting him to be a more moderate voice. Maybe it's also a reaction to hey, look, everyone thought that Bessent was gonna moderate some of those more extreme trade policies ... but Trump's not gonna be moderated by anyone.

"He has said up to 60% on Chinese goods.. so if we're only talking about an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods on top of the existing levies, that's a lot less than what he had previously indicated. .. so it may be actually less than the worst case scenario we were looking at."

MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX, BRISBANE

"It's almost as if Trump wants to remind markets who is in control, after nominating Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec - a man markets expected to cool Trump's potency. But with the Canadian dollar rising against the Mexican peso, markets are assuming this will hit Mexico the hardest."

(Reporting by Reuters' Asia markets team in Sydney, Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Compiled by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Neil Fullick)