Gavin Newsom's Chances of Beating Donald Trump, According to Polls

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) speaks to reporters in the spin room following the CNN Presidential Debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump at the McCamish Pavilion on the Georgia Institute of Technology campus on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Newsom has dismissed suggestions Biden should pull out of 2024 race following his debate performance.

Questions have been raised as to whether Gavin Newsom should replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee, but polls suggest the California governor would still lose to Donald Trump.

Fears over Biden's reelection hopes increased following the president's performance during the CNN debate on Thursday.

During the debate, Biden, who has faced concerns about his age as he seeks a second term, gave a number of incoherent and confusing responses to questions while also trailing off and not completing his sentences. Biden's voice also appeared hoarse, which his campaign team said was due to a cold.

The performance prompted calls from some Democrats for Biden to stand down and allow another candidate to seek the 2024 nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. Newsom, long seen as a future Democratic White House hopeful, has already dismissed suggestions he or anyone else is hoping to replace Biden as the party's nominee.

Even if Biden were to stand down—essentially the only way he will not be the Democratic Party nominee in November—the polls available suggest Newsom would lose to Trump.

A March Rasmussen Reports survey of 912 likely voters found that former President Trump would lead by 17 points (51 percent to 34) if Newsom were the 2024 Democratic nominee.

In February 2024, an Emerson College Polling survey of 1,225 showed that Trump would win in a hypothetical White House race against Newsom by 10 points (46 percent to 36).

A November 2023 Fox News poll of 1,001 registered voters found that Trump would win an election against Newsom by four points (49 percent to 45).

Newsweek reached out to Biden's office via email for comment.

In the wake of the CNN debate, Newsom reiterated that he is supporting Biden's reelection bid and described calls for the president to step down as "unhelpful" and "unnecessary."

"We've got to have the back of this president," Newsom told MSNBC. "You don't turn your back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?

"The more time we start having these conversations, go down these rabbit holes, are unhelpful to our democracy, our fate and future of this country," Newsom added. "The world needs us to step up, and that's exactly what I intend to do."

Steve Schmidt, a veteran anti-Trump Republican strategist, was one of those who suggested that Biden end his 2024 bid in the wake of his debate performance.

"Joe Biden lost the country tonight, and will not get it back," Schmidt posted on X, formerly Twitter. "If Trump is a threat and democracy is on the line, then Biden must step aside. His duty, oath and legacy require an act of humility and selflessness."

Former Democratic presidential hopeful Andrew Yang posted on X: "What's Joe Biden's superpower? That he's a good guy who will do the right thing for the country. In this case, that's stepping aside and letting the DNC choose another nominee."

Biden is set to be confirmed as the party's 2024 nominee at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

The president and his team have long dismissed suggestions he will withdraw from the race before November amid concerns about his age and poor approval ratings.

Lauren Hitt, Biden's campaign spokesperson, told the Associated Press after the debate: "Of course he's not dropping out."

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