Michelle Obama's Chances of Beating Donald Trump: Poll

Former First Lady Michelle Obama is seen at the opening day 2023 US Open Tennis Tournament on August 28, 2023 in New York City. She has been touted as a possible contender to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's nominee ahead of the November election.

Former President Donald Trump would beat former first lady Michelle Obama in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head matchup, according to a poll conducted earlier this year.

President Joe Biden's debate performance against Trump on June 27 cemented the concerns of many Americans that, at 81, the Democrat is too old to serve a second term as president.

The widely panned performance has prompted calls for Biden to step aside as the Democratic Party's nominee in a bid to prevent Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, from winning back the White House in November. However, Seth Schuster, a Biden campaign spokesperson, told Newsweek after the debate that Biden was "not dropping out."

Several names have been floated as contenders to replace Biden—including Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer—at the top of the Democratic ticket. Odds of Michelle Obama, the wife of former President Barack Obama, possibly replacing Biden as the party's nominee have surged, despite her repeatedly saying she does not intend to ever run for president.

In March, a poll by DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners indicated that Michelle Obama would not beat Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters found that she would receive 44 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 47 percent. The same poll also had Trump beating Biden, with 46 percent of the vote to Biden's 43 percent.

Another poll conducted in March had Michelle Obama trailing Trump by seven points, 50 percent to 43 percent.

At the time, the former first lady's office dismissed speculation about her launching a 2024 bid for the White House.

"As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president," Crystal Carson, the director of communications for Obama's office, told NBC News. "Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' reelection campaign."

Newsweek has contacted Michelle Obama's office for comment via email.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted after Thursday's debate found that none of the top names being floated to replace Biden would do better than the president in a two-way matchup against Trump.

"The idea of Michelle Obama as the Democratic nominee is a progressive fantasy," Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.

"While many Democrats would like to see the party's savior parachute into the convention, the chances of it being Obama are slim and none. Still, the fact that polling suggests that she would do about as well as Biden against Trump again suggests that 2024 is almost purely a referendum on Trump. You can basically insert any generic Democratic candidate into a hypothetical matchup with Trump, and the results look similar."

Trump criticized the former first lady's polling during a campaign event on Friday, saying he didn't believe Biden would drop out of the race "because he does better in polls than any of the Democrats they're talking about." He added: "They polled everybody. They polled Michelle Obama, she polls very badly. No, she polls terribly."

Update 07/01/24, 8:04 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comment from Thomas Gift.

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