The cost of protecting Paul Skenes

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes.

In an era when MLB teams strive to protect young pitchers with strict pitch counts, the Pittsburgh Pirates face a dilemma with rookie Paul Skenes.

Despite these measures, 2024 has seen a spike in arm injuries among top pitchers, questioning their effectiveness. The Pirates, with a historically frugal owner, may not sign Skenes long-term. Should they preserve his arm or maximize his value now?

Notable pitchers missing significant time this season include Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara, Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole. Various theories attempt to explain the cause of the arm injury epidemic, including the pitch clock, rising velocity and analytics.

Max Scherzer believes MLB's 2021 "sticky stuff" ban and resulting grip issues are to blame. Rob Manfred counters that injuries have actually decreased since enforcing the sticky-substance rule.

Throwing a baseball at the most hyper-competitive level is incredibly stressful on the arm — especially the shoulder, rotator cuff and, most critically, that tiny little ligament whose health determines the difference between winning and losing, riches and ruin.

"Nowadays it's not 'if,' it's more likely 'when' it's going to happen," Oakland Athletics manager Mark Kotsay said of arm injuries, per Mark Macyk of MLB.com.

Skenes isn't an exception to the rule. He was removed from his last start after throwing seven shutout, no-hit innings versus the Milwaukee Brewers.

Skenes threw 99 pitches, and his manager, Derek Shelton, explained to the media why he pulled Skenes.

"He was tired," Shelton said. "It really didn’t have anything to do with the pitch count ... It was about where he was at."

This came after Skenes needed only six pitches to get through his final inning of work. His season-high is 107 pitches, which he hit in his previous start against the New York Mets on July 5.

The Pirates' management of Skenes' workload reflects the broader debate on balancing immediate value and future potential.

The Washington Nationals infamously tried to protect Stephen Strasburg from injury during his first full MLB season, shutting him down after 159.1 innings. They were looking out for his future, but the Nats, who were 98-64, lost in the NLDS.

Strasburg eventually won a World Series and was named series-MVP in 2019, then pitched only eight games the rest of his career before retiring in 2024 with debilitating arm injuries.

The lesson for the Pirates is clear, especially since they are within striking distance of the playoffs.

Additionally, the Pirates have a notoriously frugal owner in Bob Nutting, described as comfortable "being mediocre" by a former Pirates player. During his ownership, they made the playoffs in three consecutive years from 2013 to 2015 but failed to capitalize on their success. The Pirates' $84.4M payroll, according to Spotrac, is ahead of only the Oakland Athletics.

Skenes, the first rookie pitcher in 29 years to start the All-Star Game, embodies the potential and risk the Pirates must balance. The question remains: Will the Pirate preserve his arm for the future or maximize his value now?

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