What’s the U.S. snow forecast for this winter?

Bikers and motorists travel during the snow storm in Cottonwood Heights on Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024.

Curious what national weather forecasts predict for snowfall across the U.S. in the next few months?

Snow bunnies who live in the Pacific Northwest are predicted to see extra precipitation through February, as are those in the Great Lakes region.

The South, from sea to shining sea, will likely see less than normal moisture. And the rest of us? It’s a coin toss, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction that spans December 2024 through February 2025.

The Washington Post’s Climate Lab prediction is more definitive, predicting on Wednesday that most of the country can probably leave the snow shovels and sleds in the garage for a while. “If this winter’s forecast proves accurate, most of the country can expect less snow this season than usual, continuing a decades-long trend of increasingly meager snowfall.”

Its map, which shows most of the country getting less snow than normal compared to the 1993-2016 average, doesn’t show a lot of states that can expect extra snow, though Washington, part of Oregon, Montana, northern Idaho, the northwest corner of Wyoming, North Dakota and upper Great Lakes states could get more than usual. Alaska’s clearly predicted to be more snowy.

Snow forecasting as art and science

Per the Post, “Seasonal forecasting has come a long way since the days when people tried to foretell the severity of the coming winter by examining the color of caterpillars or the abundance of acorns. The forecast shown above is a blend of seasonal climate models from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada — a ‘wisdom of the crowds’ technique that yields more accurate seasonal forecasts.”

Both the Post and NOAA agree that this winter will owe its moisture to the pattern of a slow-developing La Niña, which typically means more precipitation in the north, as that’s where storm tracks generally flow, leaving southern areas drier.

“In September, we announced a $100 million investment into NOAA’s high-performance computer system to advance research on weather, climate and ocean predictions because understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provides vital information for many of our partners and the public,” Michael Morgan, NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction, said in mid-October. “We continue to innovate in this space, developing new ways to share winter forecast information with the public.”

What about temperatures?

As for temperatures, it’s likely to be colder than usual up north and into the northern High Plains and warmer than usual down south all the way to the eastern Great Lakes and eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska, per NOAA. Most of Texas and the Gulf Coast are especially likely to be warmer.

Utah and Nevada are generally predicted to be somewhat warmer than normal, but they still border on that coin-flip territory, which includes most of the Midwest in the NOAA prediction. As the administration puts it, “equal chances of below-, near- or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.”

On the map, there’s not much drought in Utah through the end of January 2025. But drought is predicted to develop or get worse in parts of the Southwest and the Gulf Coast.

The Post also offers a county-by-county look at this year’s snow forecast, as well as the change in snowfall over the past 60 years. In Salt Lake County, for instance, there’s less snow. And the map said Utah overall got 67.2 inches on average a year between 1964 and 1993, then dropped to 56.9 inches on average from 1994 to 2023. That’s a 15% decrease.

If you’re wildly anxious about the short-term forecast in your neighborhood, you can still look out the window.