Tropical Storm Sara Path Update, Tracker—Could Strike Florida Within Days

An outlook model for Hurricane Sara. The storm has a 90 percent chance of forming in the next seven days and could strike Florida. Matt Devitt/WINK News

Tropical Storm Sara could form within days and strike Florida, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and meteorologists have warned.

"Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea," the NHC said in its latest update on Wednesday morning.

The center said the chances of Sara forming in the next seven days were high at 90 percent. From formation, the system is likely to move northeastward by early next week.

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In a social media post, Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at WINK News southwest Florida, said the early projection models for Sara had a "less than ideal" outlook for Florida.

Sharing a spaghetti model chart of Sara's possible progress—which Newsweek has included above—Devitt said: "Again, hasn't formed yet and things could change. Look for consistency and trends. Timing would be mid next week if it impacts Florida."

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The spaghetti model shared by Devitt shows the various paths the storm could take, all forecasting that the storm might move into the Gulf and head towards Florida. The black line is the average of the average and shows the storm hitting off the coast.

A CMC model (pink line) projects the storm making landfall near Gasparilla Sound–Charlotte Harbour.

In terms of what strength the storm might be, Devitt explained the storm had the potential to become a Category 3 hurricane (winds of 111-129 mph) in the Caribbean but that it was too early to assess what category the storm might be in the Gulf.

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The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, meaning that November hurricanes are rare but not impossible.

Sara follows on quickly from Hurricane Rafael, the strongest November tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico since Kate in 1985.

Rafael made landfall in Cuba last week as a Category 3 storm, knocking out the power grid and destroying homes. It did not make landfall in the U.S.

On record since 1850, there have only been three hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. in November.

The most recent of these was Hurricane Nicole in 2022, which struck Florida with 75 mph winds, leading to five deaths and over $1 billion of damage.

The other two November hurricanes, Yankee in 1935 and Kate in 1985, were Category 2 storms with winds of 100 mph.

High levels of storm activity at the end of the season this year are due to unusually high-water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. These elevated temperatures help fuel the energy of tropical cyclones.

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