INSIDE USA - Trump's plans for Ukraine: If Europe wants a good peace, it must do more

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump at a meeting last Sept. 22, before the U.S. elections. Handout / EPA / Keystone

After Donald Trump's election victory, the world is watching Ukraine with bated breath. The Republican promised to end the war «in 24 hours.» However, the president-elect has offered no specifics regarding how he intends to achieve this. During the election campaign, he indicated that this uncertainty constituted an element of his negotiating tactics. «I can't give you those plans because if I give you those plans, I'm not going to be able to use them,» he said.

However, while Trump has kept his cards close to the vest, people in his inner circle have already let a few key points shine through in interviews. Speaking to the BBC on Saturday, Bryan Lanza said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s primary goal must be a peace agreement with Russia, and not the reconquest of lost territories. Lanza describes himself as a «leading adviser» to the president-elect, and has been working for him since 2016. «When Zelenskyy says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we've got news for President Zelenskyy: Crimea is gone,» Lanza told the BBC. Trump will demand a «realistic vision for peace» from Kyiv, he added.

A Trump spokesperson immediately distanced the president-elect from these statements. Lanza was only a contractor for the Trump campaign and «does not work for President Trump and does not speak for him,» the spokesperson said. Lanza is today a partner in the Mercury Public Affairs consulting firm. Another of that firm’s partners is Susie Wiles – Trump's campaign manager and the prospective new White House chief of staff after the Republican takes office. It is possible that the BBC interview was a trial balloon, intended to test the reactions of the various parties to the conflict.

Lanza's statements are not radically different from other ideas that have leaked out of Trump's inner circle so far. They all have one thing in common: They recommend freezing the conflict, creating a situation in which Russia would retain control of the territories it has conquered thus far, and in which Ukraine would give up its ambitions of joining NATO for at least a considerable period.

Ukraine as a European problem

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on a plan to establish a demilitarized zone along the front line, which is currently over 1,200 kilometers long. The newspaper indicated that it had based its report on information provided by three people who are currently helping to set up Trump's new administration. Under this plan, Ukraine would refrain from joining NATO for at least the next 20 years. At the same time, the United States would continue to supply weapons to Kyiv in order to deter Russia from renewing its war of aggression.

The draft plan sees European peacekeeping forces taking on the task of securing the demilitarized zone. «We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it,» a Trump adviser told the WSJ.

This plan is in line with an interview given by incoming Vice President JD Vance in September. He too spoke out in favor of creating a demilitarized zone along the current front line. However, he outlined the role of the United States in any prospective negotiations as that of a neutral mediator. In any such plan, one critical factor will be whether Trump is also prepared to exert pressure on Russia in order to force Kremlin President Vladimir Putin to compromise. Another proposal drawn up by two Trump advisers in early summer recommended a two-pronged tactic. On the one hand, Washington would force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table by threatening to cut off military aid. On the other, the U.S. would also threaten Russia, indicating that it will expand its arms deliveries to Kyiv if the Kremlin declines to negotiate.

In an interview in July 2023, Trump signaled his willingness to pursue a course of this nature. He said he would tell Putin: «If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give them [the Ukrainians] a lot. We’re going to give them more [weapons] than they ever got, if we have to.» Nevertheless, it is not yet clear what exactly an ideal peace might look like for Trump – apart from the fact that he wants it to come about quickly.

Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley on the sidelines

According to a report in the Washington Post, Trump spoke to Putin on the phone for the first time on Thursday, and warned the Russian president not to escalate the war any further. The future president also reportedly expressed his interest in further talks with Putin in order to end the war «soon.»

The Kremlin subsequently denied that any such conversations had taken place, and said Putin does not have any concrete plans to talk to Trump.

At the moment, Putin does not appear to be in a hurry. In contrast to the United States and other Ukraine allies in the West, the Kremlin leader is not tired of war. Russia's armed forces are advancing – albeit slowly – and have now even received North Korean reinforcements. Putin is unlikely to be satisfied with simply freezing the conflict along the current front line. He also wants Kyiv to withdraw its troops from regions in the southeast of the country that Russia has not yet fully conquered. He is likely to insist on international recognition of his land grab. And he will probably accept only a neutral Ukraine that does not have an effective army. The deployment of European peacekeeping forces is also likely to be a red flag for Putin. After all, his war aim was and is to wipe out the whole of Ukraine as an autonomous state.

Much will depend on who ultimately has Trump’s ear on these issues. Unlike during his first term in office, isolationist voices seem to be gaining the upper hand in the Republican's nascent government. On Saturday, Trump announced that his future cabinet would not include his former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Meanwhile, Richard Grenell is considered to be a front-runner for the post of secretary of state or national security advisor. Trump's former ambassador in Berlin is very loyal to the president-elect. In July, Grenell spoke out in favor of establishing «autonomous regions» in southeastern Ukraine, and against the prospect of Kyiv joining NATO. Like Trump, Grenell seems to think that Ukraine is primarily a European problem. And if the Europeans want a better peace for Kyiv, they need to invest more.

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