The low-grip headaches that will dictate strategy in F1's Las Vegas GP

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB20

Formula 1 chiefs may have been hard at work to improve their cherished Las Vegas Grand Prix for its sophomore outing, but what hasn't changed one bit is the technical challenge that will decide over victory and defeat, and over the possible crowning of a world champion.

The newly-added ice skating rink F1 installed on the roof of its swanky paddock building was conceived as a bit of fun, but it may well have been a nod to the state of the 6.2km track's surface.

Much like last year, the extreme lack of grip on the busy city roads combined with near-glacial temperatures caused teams all sorts of engineering headaches, while drivers earned their keep trying to keep any slipping and sliding to a minimum.

After Mercedes had already impressed in practice, a last-minute effort by George Russell earned him pole over Carlos Sainz. Pierre Gasly took a shock third grid slot for Alpine ahead of Charles Leclerc and championship rivals Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, showing just the type of upsets Nevada's desert can enable.

What will teams have to deal with in the race?

Saturday night's 50-lap race won't be any easier, because the factors that made it hard for drivers to keep their tyres alive will only be made worse on long runs. What doesn't help grip levels is the fact that the street layout has been reopened for regular road traffic overnight. But the biggest factor that will differentiate teams is how they deal with tyre graining.

Graining is the phenomenon whereby the surface of the tyre compounds starts to break up, caused by tyres that are colder than their ideal operating window. That causes bits of rubber to rip off and then stick to the surface, reducing the tyre's contact patch with the road and with it the grip that it provides.

"The real challenge will be trying to limit the graining," said McLaren team boss Andrea Stella. "I think even in the long run that Red Bull did this morning in FP3, they started on a new set of mediums and after a few laps [they were] gone. This sets some difficulties from a strategic point of view."

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF-24

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Pirelli chief Mario Isola is expecting drivers to have to adapt their driving styles at the start of a stint to reduce the severity. "The track is in a very similar condition compared to last year, so no surprises," he said. "We found it's the lowest grip of the season. Especially on high fuel, the first few laps are the key to minimising the graining on the front and reduce degradation."

But while it will be pretty much impossible for any driver to avoid graining altogether, getting rid of it won't be straightforward either. The best way to get the graining phase out of the way is putting lateral stress and heat into the tyres, but that is hard to do when Las Vegas' stop-start street track doesn't offer any fast, high-load corners to do so.

"Usually, you clean the graining when you wear the tyre quite a lot," Isola explained. "If the wear is still quite low, I wouldn't say you clean the graining. You probably have to survive with it. If you manage the graining in the best possible way it's not affecting, usually, the performance. I believe that the graining is something that can control."

How many pitstops will we see?

Pirelli is predicting a one-stopper on mediums and then hards as the preferred strategy, although the reverse is also a good option, perhaps for those starting out of position further down the grid. The soft tyre isn't seen by Pirelli as all that suitable to race with, although it could come into play for a late safety car or red flag. All teams have two sets of hards in their allocation, which indicates it will be the dominant tyre.

Will we get to see overtaking?

A one-stop race isn't usually a recipe for frantic action, as it drives teams towards similar pitstop sequences. But it is worth remembering that last year's race in similar circumstances did offer an enthralling spectacle. The cold, low-grip conditions will keep tyre wear at a reasonably high level and invite driver errors for chasers to pounce on, and Las Vegas' huge, 1.9km main straight along the famous Strip provides a massive slipstream effect, even if the DRS isn't as powerful with skinny rear wings. Conditions are very similar to 2023, so there's no reason to suggest the racing will be much worse.

A (title) race within a race

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

That straight might well be pivotal in the battle between Verstappen and Norris, the outcome of which will dictate whether the Red Bull driver seals his fourth world title in front of the opulent Bellagio fountains or in the arid heat of Qatar.

Stella indicated that tracks that require lower-drag rear wings are "a little more problematic" for McLaren than high-downforce circuits. But Red Bull is in an even more vulnerable situation because it decided not to develop a bespoke low-downforce wing, which hurt it in Monza and is affecting it again in Las Vegas. With Verstappen and Norris starting on the third row in fifth and sixth, it will be intriguing to see if Norris can capitalise on Verstappen's lower top speed and pass him to take the title race to Losail.

Does polesitter Russell stand a chance against Ferrari?

But neither Red Bull nor McLaren seems fast enough to compete with Ferrari, the pre-race favourite on this type of circuit. The Scuderia won't be handed the win on a silver platter though, with Sainz denied pole by Russell and Leclerc having to get around Alpine's straight-line rocket driven by Gasly. But long run data still suggests Ferrari, which has been stronger on race pace than over one lap all year, has the package to beat.

For Leclerc it would be redemption after unluckily missing out on the Vegas win in 2023, while Sainz would continue his Ferrari swansong in great style.

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