What DOES happen if Rishi Sunak loses his seat on July 4?

What DOES happen if Rishi Sunak loses his seat on July 4?

Fears have been raised that Rishi Sunak could become the first serving prime minister to not only lose a general election but lose their own seat as well.

Opinion polls have been dire for the Tories throughout the election campaign, with estimates for the number of Conservative MPs afterwards ranging generally from around 70 to 150.

But one poll raised an even more alarming proposition. An MRP analysis by Savanta suggested the Conservatives would be reduced to just 53 seats - and Mr Sunak himself would lose his Richmond and Northallerton constituency.

Their study projected an enormous 382-seat majority for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer's party winning a staggering 516 constituencies on July 4.

Mr Sunak has been the MP for the Yorkshire seat of Richmond since 2015, and was branded 'the Maharajah of the Dales' because of his huge personal wealth and Indian family heritage.

He won the seat with a majority of 27,210 in 2019 - three times the majority enjoyed by Mrs Thatcher in her seat at her 1983 peak - and is contesting the successor seat this time round.

Speaking today he defended his messaging when it was put to him that he was, on the one hand, warning of a Labour landslide, and on the other, claiming he could still be Prime Minister on July 5.

He told reporters in Staffordshire: 'No, I think it's the same. I'm fighting hard for for every vote. I am out there fighting my hardest to talk to as many people as possible to win this election.'

His 2019 majority was the third largest enjoyed by a PM in the past 50 years, behind only Sir John Major in 1992 and Theresa May in 2015.

WHAT HAPPENS IF RISHI SUNAK LOSES HIS SEAT?

In terms of leading the country, in fact Mr Sunak losing his seat would mean very little. Because if he loses personally while defending a majority of that size then the Tories have almost certainly lost the election.

It means Sir Keir Starmer entering No10 on July 5 to become prime minister at the head of the first Labour government since 2010.

But the Tories will likely still be the second-largest party in the Commons, barring a defeat of epic proportions. The Conservative constitution says the leader must be drawn from 'those elected to Parliament', so Mr Sunak would automatically lose the job if he lost his seat.

So they will need to work out a way to replace Mr Sunak in the smoothest way possible.

And it is what happens to the party in the days and weeks after a defeat that could define its future direction.

In the vanishingly small chance that the Tories win, there is no direct precedent, as no serving PM has ever lost their seat. But the Institute for Government highlighted the example of a minister who lost their seat when their side won having to resign immediately.

'It is rare for ministers, particularly Cabinet ministers, to lose their seats: 12 serving Cabinet ministers have lost their seats since 1974,' it noted.

'On 11 occasions, this happened during elections that produced a change of government - Chris Patten, in 1992, is the exception. When the election has a clear outcome, defeated ministers resign immediately.'

The situation is different if there is a hung parliament, when there are days of horse trading as parties try to form a government.

In 2010, Labour's Jim Knight lost his South Dorset seat but remained minister for employment and welfare reform until the Tory-Lib Dem coalition government took over five days later.

WHO TAKES OVER?

Currently Oliver Dowden is deputy PM and he might expect to step in as a caretaker leader in the event Mr Sunak is no longer an MP.

However, there is already unrest from figures on the Right of the party about that happening.

Mr Dowden is a Sunak loyalist and internal critics of the PM told the Telegraph that replacing him, even temporarily, with an ally 'would go down like a bag of sick' among the wing of the party that wants a change in direction.

They also feel that there will be attempts to keep the Conservative Party membership out of the process of choosing Mr Sunak's permanent successor. The last leader chosen by the grassroots was Liz Truss, when she beat him in the summer of 2022.

When her term came to an end just 49 days later Mr Sunak was elected unopposed after his only challenger Penny Mordaunt withdrew.

The rules of a Tory leadership election state that candidates have to get the support of 100 MPs to get on the ballot paper. But that will surely have to change, as may a lot of the rules around leadership election.

The elections are controlled by the executive of the backbench 1922 Committee. But its chairman, Sir Graham Brady, and other senior members are standing down at this election, meaning a whole new executive will have to wrestle with this problem.

While Mr Sunak was elected in a process that took just a week, there are already moves afoot to have a lengthy leadership campaign to choose his successor, with a decision in the autumn or even as late as December.

A source told the Telegraph that a rule stitch up would be a 'very, very grave mistake', adding: 'One of the reasons why the Tory party is in such a bad position is that they have lost the membership. Getting rid of Boris, who the membership wanted, put their backs up. Then the membership chose Liz Truss.

'Then they got rid of her and appointed Rishi without going back to them, which could not have wound them up more. If they took that a step further, it would be the nail in the coffin.'

WHO WANTS TO BE THE PERMANENT LEADER?

A 'shadow' Tory leadership battle already appears to be underway as rivals jostle for position ahead of an expected contest this summer.

Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps and Tom Tugendhat are among likely contenders who have refused to rule out leadership bids.

It has also emerged how a string of websites backing possible hopefuls have been created or updated in recent months.

According to The Times, the site kemi4leader.com, which redirects to the Conservative Party homepage, was registered in West Yorkshire on April 18.

Another site backingbadenoch.co.uk was last updated on June 27 and is thought to be a grassroots effort, the newspaper reported.

But the website used for Kemi Badenoch's leadership attempt in 2022, kemiforprimeminister.com, no longer exists.

Mr Tugendhat, the security minister who ran for leader in 2022, also failed to rule out another leadership tilt.

He told Times Radio: 'What I want to do is to make sure we've got a Conservative leader in this country and that's why I'm supporting Rishi Sunak.

'Because the alternative with Keir Starmer, I'm afraid, is higher taxes, more regulation, worse growth and more unemployment.

'What we need to do is to make sure that Conservatives across this country win their seats and that's exactly what I've been focused on.'

Pressed again on the issue of what happens after the general election, he added: 'Well, we'll deal with hypotheticals in a different way.'

Mr Cleverly, the Home Secretary, and Ms Badenoch, the Business Secretary, last week hinted they might also be among those considering a leadership bid.

But Oliver Dowden, the Deputy Prime Minister and a close ally of Mr Sunak, dismissed suggestions he could become the next Tory leader as 'total and utter nonsense'.